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class="zai_yao">摘要:调?ldquo;百日全景”:回顾与展望作者:杨现领,链家研究院负责人本文为作者个人观点,不代表华尔街见闻立场?017??7日,北京出台“史上最?rdquo;房地产调?......</p> <div id="pic_url"> </div> <div id="fe5zut489" class="bodycontens"> <p>调控“百日全景”:回顾与展望</p><p>欧美老外毛片m.56.com作者:杨现领,链家研究院负责人</p><p>本文为作者个人观点,不代表华尔街见闻立场?/p><p>欧美老外毛片m.56.com2017??7日,北京出台“史上最?rdquo;房地产调控政策。在过去?00天,房地产市场有何变化?</p><p>房地产市场的几个显著变化</p><p>1)中国房地产市场正以很快速度进入二手房时?/p><p>2016年中国有41%的住房需求是通过二手房供给的方式满足,而今??月份这个比例已超?0%,其中北京、上海等一线城市这一比例达到85%,从全年来看,今年中国至少有50%以上的住房需求会通过二手房供给的方式满足?/p><p>当前二手房市场已经成为中国住房供应的重要力量之一。从供应链的数据来看?016年北京二手住宅供?6.7万套,商品住宅供应只?.8万套左右;相对而言上海供应结构更为合理,二手房与商品住宅的供应比例大约??左右。从新房供应的情况来看,上海每年新房供应量基本保持稳定走势,而北京新房供应量在近年来持续保持下降和收缩态势,新房供应能力持续走弱?/p><p>因而在北京、上海这类二手房供应占主导的房地产市场,房屋供给能力更多取决于二手房?/p><p>2)房地产中介的悄然变?/p><p>过去几年房地产中介快速成长,在二手房市场中发挥的作用越来越大。全?00万经纪人完成了接?万亿的房屋交易额,为超过550万家庭匹配了他们心仪的房屋,这是一个很不错的成就?/p><p>从行业角度,本质上房地产中介就是一个信息交易和匹配的平台,房地产中介线下服务的规模效益+线上服务的网络效应,使得这个行业天然具备很强的集中度?016年CR3的集中度已超?0%?/p><p>今年调控对房地产中介的规范和二手房的管理总体上会对这个行业起到一定的正向作用。当前的房地产中介市场已经形成了一批比较职业化的参与者,这个变化对房地产市场的规范运营,对房地产政策的执行也起到非常关键的作用。这个房地产市场正在快速形成一批比较专业化和机构化的力量,这些力量在房地产市场也发挥着越来越重要的作用?/p><p>3)整个房地产市场结构正在发生变化</p><p>2016年房地产市场的迸发,主要在于换房需求的集中释放?016年北京购房需求中80%都是换房需求,在换房需求中,购房者的决策机制也发生了相应变化,因为手里有一套房子,消费者在购房决策中,需求的边际约束不再是首付和房贷,购房能力的增加也使得消费者的出手能力变强,对房地产价格的敏感度下降,择时变的更为重要?/p> 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